1º de Maio de Benguela vs CD Lunda Sul Prediction: a narrow 1º de Maio de Benguela win

The prediction

The reasoning

On the match result the model has 1º de Maio de Benguela at 39 percent, with the draw at 30 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from 1º de Maio de Benguela and 1.1 from CD Lunda Sul, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 13.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

1º de Maio de Benguela1.26

CD Lunda Sul1.10

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.