How the Tips44 model works

The data the model uses

Four inputs do most of the work. Recent form, meaning results and performances over each side's last several matches rather than the whole season. Expected goals, both scored and conceded, which measure the quality of the chances a team creates and gives up rather than just the final score. Home and away splits, because many teams are a different side at home than on the road. And the head-to-head history between the two clubs. The model pulls these from the same live match and stats data that powers the scores and fixtures across Livescore44, covering 200+ competitions.

What the model does not use

It has no inside knowledge. It does not use rumours, tipster hunches, so-called fixed matches, or anything that cannot be measured. Anyone claiming access to fixed games is either lying or committing a crime, and we want no part of it. The model also does not chase reputation: a famous club in poor form is priced on its form, not its name.

How a pick is made

For each fixture the model calculates a probability for every market it covers, from the match result to corners. It then compares that probability against the bar we have set for that market, and it only publishes a pick when the number clears it. If nothing clears the bar in a market on a given day, that market simply shows no picks rather than a forced call. This is deliberate. It is why the number of tips changes day to day, and why on a tight fixture the model will happily decline to call a winner and point you to a goals or corners market instead. A market with no pick is the model telling you it does not see an edge.

What the confidence score means

Each pick carries a confidence figure. That is the model's estimated probability that the pick lands, straight from the maths that produced it. It is not a guarantee, and it is not copied from any bookmaker's odds. Read it plainly: a pick at 80 percent is one the model is far surer of than a pick at 60. And remember the flip side, a 70 percent call is still expected to lose about three times in ten over a long run. That is not the model failing, that is probability working as it should, and it is exactly why we publish the full record so you can see how each confidence band has actually performed.

The record page breaks the settled results down by confidence band for this reason. If the 70 to 79 band really lands around three quarters of the time, the number on every card is doing its job. If it does not, the number is decoration, and you should be able to see that for yourself. The bands are published here.

The markets we model

Match result, double chance, draw no bet, over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals, over 3.5 goals, both teams to score, correct score and corners, plus a daily accumulator built from the higher-confidence picks and a banker of the day, the single call the model is most sure of. Each market has its own page explaining how it is modelled and where it tends to go wrong.

• Match result
• Double chance
• Draw no bet
• Over 1.5 goals
• Over 2.5 goals
• Over 3.5 goals
• Both teams to score
• Corners
• Correct score

How picks are settled

A pick is settled automatically the moment the match finishes, against the official final score, and it never changes after that. Wins and losses are counted the same way for every market. Nothing is quietly removed, revised or hidden. Every settled pick appears on the public record, which is the only honest way to show how the model performs.

What the model cannot do

It cannot see the future, and football is genuinely uncertain, which is the whole appeal of the sport. A red card in the opening minutes, a late change to the lineup, a penalty, a goalkeeping error or a team shutting up shop to protect a lead can all overturn the most sensible prediction. The model works over many matches, not any single one, so judge it by its record across hundreds of calls rather than by one result. And no model, ours included, produces a sure win. If you ever see us or anyone else promise one, do not believe it.

Why we publish our losses

Most tips sites show you a highlight reel and an accuracy figure nobody can check. We publish every pick, wins and losses together, because a record you cannot audit is worth nothing. It keeps us honest, it lets you judge the model on real evidence before you trust it, and it is the only claim in this space we think you should actually believe. Right now that record stands at 207 wins and 86 losses from 293 settled calls over 14 days, a 70.6% strike rate. See the full record.

Bet responsibly

Predictions are for information only. They are a guide to probability, not a plan to make money, and they should never be treated as a guaranteed return or a way out of a financial hole. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, set your own limits, and if betting stops being fun, stop. Help is available if gambling is becoming a problem. 18+ only.

Methodology, frequently asked questions