Football tips today

67 picks today across 21 matches in 15 competitions, each with the model's confidence.

• Serie ALock19:30
  Como

  vs

  Parma
  Como to win

  78
• Parva LigaLock20:30
  Ludogorets

  vs

  FK Septemvri Sofia
  Ludogorets to win

  77
• Serie ALock21:45
  Inter

  vs

  Udinese
  Inter to win

  76
• AllsvenskanLock20:00
  IK Sirius

  vs

  Degerfors IF
  IK Sirius to win

  65
• SuperligaLock21:00
  FCSB

  vs

  FC Petrolul Ploiești
  FCSB or draw

  85
• Liga Portugal BetclicLock22:45
  Sporting Braga

  vs

  Estoril Praia
  Sporting Braga or draw

  85

Value picks

• Ligue 2Value21:45
  Red Star FC

  vs

  Metz
  Red Star FC (draw no bet)

  64

By market

Eight markets, each with its own page explaining how it is modelled and what tends to go wrong with it.

Competitions with picks today

• Serie A12
• Allsvenskan10
• Eliteserien6
• Superliga6
• La Liga5
• Danish Superliga5
• Parva Liga4
• Liga Portugal Betclic4
• Trendyol Super Lig4
• Premier League3
• Liga Portugal 22
• Ekstraklasa2
• Ligue 22
• Veikkausliiga1
• Segunda División1

Today's builds

• Acca of the dayA multi-match slip built from the higher-confidence picks, with the combined price and an honest read on the risk.
• Banker of the dayThe single highest-confidence call across every match and market today.

By competition

• Champions LeagueNo fixtures in the window
• Premier League33 picks this gameweek
• AFCONNo fixtures in the window
• How the model worksThe data, the confidence score, and what it cannot do

The model reads recent form, expected goals, home and away splits and head-to-head history, then scores each market it is willing to call. It publishes a pick only where the number clears the bar for that market, which is why the count changes from day to day. It has no inside knowledge and cannot see the future.

Over the last 14 days it has settled 213 wins and 81 losses from 294 calls, a 72.4% strike rate. Losses included, because a record you cannot audit is worth nothing. Check every one.

How to use today's tips

Start with the confidence number. A pick at 80 percent is one the model is far more sure of than a pick at 60, and the higher-confidence calls sit at the top of each market. Then pick the market that matches how you like to play: match result if you want a straight winner, double chance or draw no bet if you want a safety net, over 2.5 or both teams to score if you back goals. Check the fixture page for the reasoning before you decide, and never stake money you cannot afford to lose. Odds move, so confirm the price with a licensed operator before you place anything.

How the Tips44 model works

The model is built on data, not opinion. For every fixture it looks at recent form over the last several matches, expected goals scored and conceded, how each side performs at home versus away, and the head-to-head record between the two teams. It turns that into a probability for each market, and it only publishes a pick when that probability clears the bar we set for that market. If nothing clears the bar in a market on a given day, that market shows no picks rather than a forced call. This is why the number of tips changes from day to day. Read the full methodology.

Reading the confidence score

The confidence figure is the model's estimated probability that the pick lands, from the same maths that produced the pick. It is not a guarantee and it is not tied to any bookmaker's odds. A 70 percent call will still lose roughly three times in ten over a season, which is exactly why we publish the full settled record so you can see how the confidence numbers have actually performed.

When today's tips update

Picks refresh every 30 minutes through the day as team news and kickoff times firm up, so it is worth a second look closer to kickoff. Tomorrow's fixtures appear once the day's data is in.