Champions League predictions

Updated 8 September at 03:15 EAT

Here are the latest Champions League predictions. The model is calling 24 picks across 6 fixtures this matchday, each shown with its confidence and each settled in public against the final score afterwards. European nights turn on form, squad rotation and the weight of the occasion, so the model leans on recent expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head history rather than reputation. Kickoffs are shown in East Africa Time.

Across all competitions over the last 14 days the model has settled 232 wins and 101 losses from 333 calls, a 69.7% strike rate, losses included. See every one.

Champions League tips this matchday

Other markets on these fixtures

How we model the Champions League

The Champions League is harder to predict than a domestic league, and the model treats it that way. Big sides rotate heavily, a team flying in their league can look flat in Europe, and the standard of opponent jumps. The model weighs each side’s form across all competitions, its expected goals for and against, how it performs at home versus away, and any head-to-head history, then only calls a market where the numbers give a real edge. On the tightest fixtures it will decline to call a match-result winner and point you to the goals or corners markets instead, which is a signal in itself.

Champions League kickoff times and how to watch in Kenya

Midweek Champions League kickoffs usually land in the evening in East Africa Time, which makes them prime fixtures for Kenyan fans. If you want to follow the matches as well as the tips, see our guide to watching the Champions League in Kenya. Watch the Champions League in Kenya.