Premier League predictions

Updated 23 October at 02:03 EAT (23:03 UTC)

Here are the latest Premier League predictions. The model is calling 2 picks across 1 fixture this gameweek, each shown with its confidence and each settled in public against the final score afterwards. The Premier League is the most-followed league in Kenya, and it is also one of the most predictable to model because the data is deep, so this is where the model has the most to work with. Kickoffs show in your own timezone.

Across all competitions over the last 14 days the model has settled 265 wins and 135 losses from 400 calls, a 66.3% strike rate, losses included. See every one.

Premier League tips this gameweek

Premier LeagueLock22:00
Ipswich Town
vs
Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town or Nottingham Forest
73

Other markets on these fixtures

Ipswich Town v Nottingham ForestIpswich Town (draw no bet)65%22:00

How we model the Premier League

With a full season of data behind every club, the Premier League gives the model plenty to read: recent form, expected goals scored and conceded, clear home and away patterns, and long head-to-head records. It uses all of it to price each market, and it is honest when a fixture is a coin toss. The league is famous for upsets, so even the strongest calls carry a real chance of losing, and the record page shows exactly how often they do.

Premier League kickoff times and how to watch in Kenya

Saturday and Sunday Premier League fixtures run across the afternoon and evening, with the lunchtime kickoff landing early afternoon in Nairobi. For where to watch every match in Kenya, see our guide. Watch the Premier League in Kenya.