Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction: a narrow Scotland win

The prediction

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 37 percent Scotland, 29 percent the draw and 35 percent Slovenia. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Scotland and 1.2 from Slovenia, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Scotland1.26

Slovenia1.21

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.