Serie C, Girone A
Alcione Milano vs Calcio Desenzano Prediction: a narrow Alcione Milano win
Our model makes Alcione Milano vs Calcio Desenzano a narrow Alcione Milano win, with a most likely score of 1-1 and high confidence at 3850%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 222 wins and 94 losses from 316 settled picks, a 70.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today13.2%7.58
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent Alcione Milano, 30 percent the draw and 31 percent Calcio Desenzano. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Alcione Milano and 1.1 from Calcio Desenzano, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 13.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.