CD Nacional vs FC Alverca Prediction: a narrow CD Nacional win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.4%8.06

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent CD Nacional, 29 percent the draw and 33 percent FC Alverca. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from CD Nacional and 1.3 from FC Alverca, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

CD Nacional1.36

FC Alverca1.29

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.