Estudiantes de Río Cuarto vs Aldosivi Prediction: a narrow Aldosivi win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today14.2%7.04

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 30 percent Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, 33 percent the draw and 37 percent Aldosivi. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 0.9 goals from Estudiantes de Río Cuarto and 1.1 from Aldosivi, a combined 2.0, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 14.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto0.95

Aldosivi1.05

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.