Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction: a narrow Brentford win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Aston Villa or BrentfordDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.6%8.62

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent Aston Villa, 27 percent the draw and 37 percent Brentford. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Aston Villa and 1.4 from Brentford, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Aston Villa or Brentford at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Aston Villa1.53

Brentford1.35

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.