AVS - Futebol SAD vs Moreirense Prediction: a narrow AVS - Futebol SAD win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• AVS - Futebol SAD or MoreirenseDouble chance tips today75%1.33
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.3%8.85

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent AVS - Futebol SAD, 25 percent the draw and 36 percent Moreirense. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from AVS - Futebol SAD and 1.4 from Moreirense, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: AVS - Futebol SAD or Moreirense at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AVS - Futebol SAD1.53

Moreirense1.44

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.