Barnsley vs Cambridge United Prediction: a narrow Barnsley win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 60% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.3 / 1.5).

Every market we call on this match

• Barnsley or Cambridge UnitedDouble chance tips today74%1.35
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today73%1.37
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.1%8.26

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 38 percent Barnsley, 26 percent the draw and 36 percent Cambridge United. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Barnsley and 1.5 from Cambridge United, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Barnsley or Cambridge United at 74 percent, Over 8.5 corners at 73 percent and Both teams to score at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and over 2.5 goals here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Barnsley1.28

Cambridge United1.46

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.