Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction: a narrow Bournemouth win

The prediction

Both teams to score priced 61% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.6 / 1.4).

Every market we call on this match

• Bournemouth or BrentfordDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
• Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.1%9.01

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 37 percent Bournemouth, 27 percent the draw and 36 percent Brentford. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Bournemouth and 1.4 from Brentford, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Bournemouth or Brentford at 73 percent, Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent and Both teams to score at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and over 2.5 goals here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Bournemouth1.58

Brentford1.43

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.