CDC Montalegre vs FC Maia Lidador Prediction: a narrow CDC Montalegre win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• CDC Montalegre (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today18.3%5.46

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has CDC Montalegre at 40 percent, with the draw at 29 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from CDC Montalegre and 0.7 from FC Maia Lidador, a combined 1.9, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. One market clears our bar on this fixture: CDC Montalegre (draw no bet) at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 18.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

CDC Montalegre1.26

FC Maia Lidador0.67

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.