Estrela Calheta FC vs AD Ovarense Prediction: a narrow AD Ovarense win

The prediction

AD Ovarense favoured at 55%.

Every market we call on this match

• AD Ovarense or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
• AD Ovarense (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
• AD Ovarense to winMatch result tips today55%1.82

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AD Ovarense at 55 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: AD Ovarense or draw at 80 percent, AD Ovarense (draw no bet) at 74 percent and AD Ovarense to win at 55 percent. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities