Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC Prediction: a narrow Lexington SC win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Las Vegas Lights or Lexington SCDouble chance tips today74%1.35
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.0%8.33

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Lexington SC at 45 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Las Vegas Lights and 1.5 from Lexington SC, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Las Vegas Lights or Lexington SC at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Las Vegas Lights1.22

Lexington SC1.51

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.