Cienciano vs Montevideo City Torque Prediction: a narrow Cienciano win

The prediction

Cienciano favoured at 58% — model xG 1.2 vs 1.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Cienciano or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
• Cienciano to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today13.2%7.58

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Cienciano at 58 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Cienciano and 1.1 from Montevideo City Torque, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Cienciano or draw at 83 percent and Cienciano to win at 58 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 13.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Cienciano1.22

Montevideo City Torque1.05

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.