Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction: a narrow Sheffield Wednesday win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Sheffield Wednesday or AFC WimbledonDouble chance tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.6%7.94

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent Sheffield Wednesday, 28 percent the draw and 36 percent AFC Wimbledon. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Sheffield Wednesday and 1.3 from AFC Wimbledon, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Sheffield Wednesday or AFC Wimbledon at 72 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Sheffield Wednesday1.30

AFC Wimbledon1.28

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.