Südtirol vs Ascoli Prediction: a narrow Südtirol win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Südtirol (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today69%1.45
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.3%8.13

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent Südtirol, 29 percent the draw and 32 percent Ascoli. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Südtirol and 1.0 from Ascoli, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Südtirol (draw no bet) at 69 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Südtirol1.51

Ascoli0.98

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.