União Desportiva da Serra vs Mortágua Prediction: a narrow União Desportiva da Serra win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• União Desportiva da Serra or MortáguaDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.4%8.06

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has União Desportiva da Serra at 43 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from União Desportiva da Serra and 1.2 from Mortágua, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: União Desportiva da Serra or Mortágua at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

União Desportiva da Serra1.43

Mortágua1.18

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.