Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Prediction: a narrow Hemel Hempstead win

The prediction

Hemel Hempstead favoured at 60%.

Every market we call on this match

• Hemel Hempstead or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
• Hemel Hempstead (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
• Hemel Hempstead to winMatch result tips today60%1.67

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Hemel Hempstead at 60 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Hemel Hempstead or draw at 82 percent, Hemel Hempstead (draw no bet) at 77 percent and Hemel Hempstead to win at 60 percent. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities