Abia Warriors vs Bendel Insurance FC Prediction: a narrow Abia Warriors win

The prediction

Abia Warriors favoured at 58% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Abia Warriors or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Abia Warriors (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Abia Warriors to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.4%6.49

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Abia Warriors at 58 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Abia Warriors and 0.8 from Bendel Insurance FC, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Abia Warriors or draw at 84 percent, Abia Warriors (draw no bet) at 78 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Abia Warriors1.54

Bendel Insurance FC0.76

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.