AC Vila Meã vs FC Vinhais Prediction: a narrow AC Vila Meã win

The prediction

AC Vila Meã favoured at 58% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.7.

Every market we call on this match

• AC Vila Meã or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• AC Vila Meã (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
• AC Vila Meã to winMatch result tips today58%1.72
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.9%6.29

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has AC Vila Meã at 58 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from AC Vila Meã and 0.7 from FC Vinhais, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: AC Vila Meã or draw at 85 percent, AC Vila Meã (draw no bet) at 79 percent and AC Vila Meã to win at 58 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

AC Vila Meã1.54

FC Vinhais0.73

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.