Arsenal vs Leeds United Prediction: a narrow Arsenal win

The prediction

Arsenal favoured at 67% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Arsenal or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Arsenal (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
• Arsenal to winMatch result tips today67%1.49
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today11.5%8.70

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Arsenal at 67 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Arsenal and 0.9 from Leeds United, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Arsenal or draw at 85 percent, Arsenal (draw no bet) at 77 percent and Arsenal to win at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 11.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Arsenal1.80

Leeds United0.95

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.