Atletico CP vs Vizela Prediction: a narrow Atletico CP win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Atletico CP or VizelaDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• Atletico CP (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.7%9.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Atletico CP at 51 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Atletico CP and 1.3 from Vizela, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Atletico CP or Vizela at 77 percent, Atletico CP (draw no bet) at 67 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Atletico CP1.80

Vizela1.25

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.