Santos vs Atlético Mineiro Prediction: a narrow Santos win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Santos or drawDouble chance tips today72%1.39
• Santos (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.6%7.94

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Santos at 42 percent, with the draw at 31 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Santos and 1.0 from Atlético Mineiro, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Santos or draw at 72 percent and Santos (draw no bet) at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Santos1.44

Atlético Mineiro1.01

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.