Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín Prediction: a Atlético Nacional win

The prediction

Atlético Nacional favoured at 64% — model xG 1.9 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Atlético Nacional or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Atlético Nacional (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Atlético Nacional to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today10.9%9.17

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Atlético Nacional at 64 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Atlético Nacional and 0.9 from Independiente Medellín, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Atlético Nacional or draw at 85 percent, Atlético Nacional (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Atlético Nacional1.95

Independiente Medellín0.93

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.