Atlético Petróleos de Luanda vs União Desportiva do Songo Prediction: a narrow Atlético Petróleos de Luanda win

The prediction

Atlético Petróleos de Luanda favoured at 60% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Atlético Petróleos de Luanda or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Atlético Petróleos de Luanda (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today82%1.22
• Atlético Petróleos de Luanda to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today18.5%5.41

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Atlético Petróleos de Luanda at 60 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Atlético Petróleos de Luanda and 0.6 from União Desportiva do Songo, a combined 2.1, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Atlético Petróleos de Luanda or draw at 85 percent, Atlético Petróleos de Luanda (draw no bet) at 82 percent and Atlético Petróleos de Luanda to win at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 18.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Atlético Petróleos de Luanda1.47

União Desportiva do Songo0.60

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.