Austin FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction: a narrow Vancouver Whitecaps win

The prediction

Vancouver Whitecaps favoured at 56% — model xG 1.2 vs 1.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Vancouver Whitecaps or drawDouble chance tips today79%1.27
• Vancouver Whitecaps (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
• Vancouver Whitecaps to winMatch result tips today56%1.79
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.4%9.62

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Vancouver Whitecaps at 56 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Austin FC and 1.9 from Vancouver Whitecaps, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Vancouver Whitecaps or draw at 79 percent, Vancouver Whitecaps (draw no bet) at 72 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Austin FC1.16

Vancouver Whitecaps1.88

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.