Bendel Insurance FC vs Ikorodu City Prediction: a narrow Bendel Insurance FC win

The prediction

Bendel Insurance FC favoured at 63% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Bendel Insurance FC or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Bendel Insurance FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
• Bendel Insurance FC to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.5%7.41

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Bendel Insurance FC at 63 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Bendel Insurance FC and 0.8 from Ikorodu City, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Bendel Insurance FC or draw at 85 percent, Bendel Insurance FC (draw no bet) at 81 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Bendel Insurance FC1.77

Ikorodu City0.80

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.