Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden Prediction: a narrow Bosnia & Herzegovina win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Bosnia & Herzegovina or drawDouble chance tips today74%1.35
• Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.0%8.33

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Bosnia & Herzegovina at 48 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Bosnia & Herzegovina and 1.1 from Sweden, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw at 74 percent and Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw no bet) at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina1.55

Sweden1.13

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.