Canada vs Peru Prediction: a Canada win

The prediction

Canada favoured at 73% — model xG 1.9 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Canada or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Canada (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Canada to winMatch result tips today73%1.37
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.7%6.37

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Canada at 73 percent, with the draw at 19 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Canada and 0.6 from Peru, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Canada or draw at 85 percent, Canada (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Canada to win at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Canada1.95

Peru0.57

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.