Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club Prediction: a narrow Celta Vigo win

The prediction

Model backs Over 1.5 at 81% — combined xG 3.1.

Every market we call on this match

• Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
• Celta Vigo or Real Racing ClubDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.6%9.43

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Celta Vigo at 42 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Celta Vigo and 1.5 from Real Racing Club, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Celta Vigo or Real Racing Club at 76 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Celta Vigo1.67

Real Racing Club1.48

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.