Chicago Stars FC vs Seattle Reign FC Prediction: a narrow Seattle Reign FC win

The prediction

Seattle Reign FC favoured at 62% — model xG 1.0 vs 1.9.

Every market we call on this match

• Seattle Reign FC or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Seattle Reign FC (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
• Seattle Reign FC to winMatch result tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.4%9.62

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Seattle Reign FC at 62 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.0 goals from Chicago Stars FC and 1.9 from Seattle Reign FC, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Seattle Reign FC or draw at 84 percent, Seattle Reign FC (draw no bet) at 79 percent and Seattle Reign FC to win at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Chicago Stars FC0.97

Seattle Reign FC1.90

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.