China vs New Zealand Prediction: a China win

The prediction

China favoured at 71% — model xG 2.1 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• China or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• China (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• China to winMatch result tips today71%1.41
• Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today12.4%8.06

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has China at 71 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from China and 0.8 from New Zealand, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: China or draw at 85 percent, China (draw no bet) at 85 percent and China to win at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

China2.12

New Zealand0.78

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.