Club Atlético de Madrid vs Madrid CFF Prediction: a Club Atlético de Madrid win

The prediction

Club Atlético de Madrid favoured at 64% — model xG 2.0 vs 1.0.

Every market we call on this match

• Club Atlético de Madrid or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Club Atlético de Madrid (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Club Atlético de Madrid to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.8%10.20

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Club Atlético de Madrid at 64 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Club Atlético de Madrid and 1.0 from Madrid CFF, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Club Atlético de Madrid or draw at 84 percent, Club Atlético de Madrid (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Club Atlético de Madrid to win at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Club Atlético de Madrid2.04

Madrid CFF1.01

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.