Colchester United vs Exeter City Prediction: a narrow Colchester United win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Colchester United or drawDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Colchester United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.6%7.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Colchester United at 45 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Colchester United and 0.9 from Exeter City, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Colchester United or draw at 73 percent and Colchester United (draw no bet) at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Colchester United1.40

Exeter City0.93

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.