Colombia vs Paraguay Prediction: a narrow Colombia win

The prediction

Colombia favoured at 61% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Colombia or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Colombia (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today80%1.25
• Colombia to winMatch result tips today61%1.64
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.7%6.80

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Colombia at 61 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Colombia and 0.8 from Paraguay, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Colombia or draw at 85 percent, Colombia (draw no bet) at 80 percent and Colombia to win at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Colombia1.67

Paraguay0.76

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.