Estudiantes de La Plata vs Corinthians Prediction: a narrow Estudiantes de La Plata win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Estudiantes de La Plata or drawDouble chance tips today74%1.35
• Estudiantes de La Plata (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today71%1.41
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today16.6%6.02

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Estudiantes de La Plata at 41 percent, with the draw at 33 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.8 from Corinthians, a combined 2.0, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Estudiantes de La Plata or draw at 74 percent and Estudiantes de La Plata (draw no bet) at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 16.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Estudiantes de La Plata1.28

Corinthians0.76

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.