Côte d'Ivoire vs Cameroon Prediction: a Côte d'Ivoire win

The prediction

Côte d'Ivoire favoured at 55% — model xG 1.8 vs 0.8.

Every market we call on this match

• Côte d'Ivoire (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today84%1.19
• Côte d'Ivoire or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• Côte d'Ivoire to winMatch result tips today55%1.82
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.8%7.25

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Côte d'Ivoire at 55 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Côte d'Ivoire and 0.8 from Cameroon, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Côte d'Ivoire (draw no bet) at 84 percent, Côte d'Ivoire or draw at 81 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Côte d'Ivoire1.84

Cameroon0.75

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.