Desportivo da Huíla vs Académica Petróleos do Lobito Prediction: a Desportivo da Huíla win

The prediction

Desportivo da Huíla favoured at 69% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.6.

Every market we call on this match

• Desportivo da Huíla or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Desportivo da Huíla (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Desportivo da Huíla to winMatch result tips today69%1.45
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today17.4%5.75

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Desportivo da Huíla at 69 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Desportivo da Huíla and 0.6 from Académica Petróleos do Lobito, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Desportivo da Huíla or draw at 85 percent, Desportivo da Huíla (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Desportivo da Huíla to win at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 17.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Desportivo da Huíla1.74

Académica Petróleos do Lobito0.56

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.