Espérance Sportive De Tunis vs Olympique Béja Prediction: a Espérance Sportive De Tunis win

The prediction

Espérance Sportive De Tunis favoured at 78% — model xG 1.9 vs 0.4.

Every market we call on this match

• Espérance Sportive De Tunis or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Espérance Sportive De Tunis (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Espérance Sportive De Tunis to winMatch result tips today78%1.28
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today19.0%5.26

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Espérance Sportive De Tunis at 78 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Espérance Sportive De Tunis and 0.4 from Olympique Béja, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Espérance Sportive De Tunis or draw at 85 percent, Espérance Sportive De Tunis (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Espérance Sportive De Tunis to win at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 19.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Espérance Sportive De Tunis1.93

Olympique Béja0.39

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.