Etoile Sportive Du Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif Prediction: a narrow Etoile Sportive Du Sahel win

The prediction

Etoile Sportive Du Sahel favoured at 63% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.5.

Every market we call on this match

• Etoile Sportive Du Sahel or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
• Etoile Sportive Du Sahel (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
• Etoile Sportive Du Sahel to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today20.5%4.88

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Etoile Sportive Du Sahel at 63 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Etoile Sportive Du Sahel and 0.5 from CS Hammam-Lif, a combined 2.0, which is a low total and argues against the goals markets. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Etoile Sportive Du Sahel or draw at 85 percent, Etoile Sportive Du Sahel (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Etoile Sportive Du Sahel to win at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 20.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Etoile Sportive Du Sahel1.47

CS Hammam-Lif0.50

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.