Fath Union Sport vs Raja Club Athletic Prediction: a narrow Raja Club Athletic win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Raja Club Athletic or drawDouble chance tips today76%1.32
• Raja Club Athletic (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today65%1.54
• Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today14.7%6.80

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Raja Club Athletic at 46 percent, with the draw at 31 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 0.9 goals from Fath Union Sport and 1.3 from Raja Club Athletic, a combined 2.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Raja Club Athletic or draw at 76 percent and Raja Club Athletic (draw no bet) at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 14.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Fath Union Sport0.89

Raja Club Athletic1.26

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.