FC Alverca vs Rio Ave Prediction: a narrow FC Alverca win

The prediction

FC Alverca favoured at 57% — model xG 1.7 vs 1.0.

Every market we call on this match

• FC Alverca or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
• FC Alverca (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
• FC Alverca to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.2%8.93

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Alverca at 57 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from FC Alverca and 1.0 from Rio Ave, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by FC Alverca or draw at 81 percent, FC Alverca (draw no bet) at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC Alverca1.74

Rio Ave0.97

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.