FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots SC Prediction: a narrow FC Tulsa win

The prediction

FC Tulsa favoured at 56% — model xG 1.6 vs 0.9.

Every market we call on this match

• FC Tulsa or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
• FC Tulsa (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
• FC Tulsa to winMatch result tips today56%1.79
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.6%7.35

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Tulsa at 56 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from FC Tulsa and 0.9 from Oakland Roots SC, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: FC Tulsa or draw at 82 percent, FC Tulsa (draw no bet) at 75 percent and FC Tulsa to win at 56 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC Tulsa1.59

Oakland Roots SC0.87

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.