FC Viktoria Plzeň vs Mladá Boleslav Prediction: a narrow FC Viktoria Plzeň win

The prediction

FC Viktoria Plzeň favoured at 62% — model xG 1.3 vs 1.7.

Every market we call on this match

• FC Viktoria Plzeň or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
• Mladá Boleslav (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today64%1.56
• Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
• FC Viktoria Plzeň to winMatch result tips today62%1.61
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.8%9.26

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has FC Viktoria Plzeň at 62 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from FC Viktoria Plzeň and 1.7 from Mladá Boleslav, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by FC Viktoria Plzeň or draw at 84 percent, Mladá Boleslav (draw no bet) at 64 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

FC Viktoria Plzeň1.30

Mladá Boleslav1.74

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.