Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham United Prediction: a narrow Fleetwood Town win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• Fleetwood Town (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today76%1.32
• Fleetwood Town or Rotherham UnitedDouble chance tips today73%1.37
• Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today13.0%7.69

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has Fleetwood Town at 42 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Fleetwood Town and 0.9 from Rotherham United, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Fleetwood Town (draw no bet) at 76 percent and Fleetwood Town or Rotherham United at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 13.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

Fleetwood Town1.65

Rotherham United0.89

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.