France vs Italy Prediction: a narrow France win

The prediction

Every market we call on this match

• France or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
• France (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today70%1.43
• Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.9%9.17

Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.

The reasoning

On the match result the model has France at 53 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from France and 1.2 from Italy, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: France or draw at 77 percent and France (draw no bet) at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.

Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.

Full-time result probabilities

Expected goals

France1.79

Italy1.17

Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.