Serie C, Girone A
Giana Erminio vs Union Brescia Prediction: a narrow Union Brescia win
Our model makes Giana Erminio vs Union Brescia a narrow Union Brescia win, with a most likely score of 0-1 and high confidence at 5720%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Union Brescia favoured at 57% — model xG 0.9 vs 1.4.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 222 wins and 94 losses from 316 settled picks, a 70.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Union Brescia or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
- Union Brescia (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today70%1.43
- Union Brescia to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
- Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today14.1%7.09
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Union Brescia at 57 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 0.9 goals from Giana Erminio and 1.4 from Union Brescia, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Union Brescia or draw at 83 percent, Union Brescia (draw no bet) at 70 percent and Union Brescia to win at 57 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 14.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.